Barcelona are on the hunt for a treble as they come up against a faltering Inter Milan side in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. We look ahead to the tie by identifying some key elements to keep an eye on.
The second of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League semi-final first legs is played on Wednesday, as Spanish giants Barcelona come up against Italian side Internazionale.
The two teams meet at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, before doing it all again at San Siro next Tuesday.
We identify six facets that could be decisive ahead of the two-legged UCL tie.
Can Inter Take Advantage of Barcelona’s High Line?
There’s a good chance that Champions League offside records will be broken in this tie.
Under Hansi Flick this season, Barcelona have played a ridiculously high line in defence, putting the utmost belief in their offside trap to catch opponents illegally breaching their backline. So far, that high-risk/high-reward strategy has paid dividends, but Inter could be a problematic opponent.
In all competitions this season, Barcelona have caught opponents offside nearly twice as often as any other team (267 – 132 more than anyone else) from the top five European leagues. They average 5.0 offsides provoked per game, with only one other side (Parma, 3.2) averaging more than three a game this season.
The average distance from their own goalline that they catch opponents offside has been 34.5 metres in La Liga – only Manchester City’s average offside-provoked line of 34.9m is higher across the top five European leagues this season. In the Champions League, their average is the third highest at 33.7m, again behind Man City (35.3m) and Bologna (35.7m).
Barcelona will have to take risks to catch Inter players in their trap, but these are opponents who have been caught offside more often than any other team from the top five European league across all competitions this season (119).
Inter’s versatility in a 3-5-2 could prove tricky for Barcelona across the two legs. We saw some weaknesses in Barça’s defensive line against Borussia Dortmund in the second-leg defeat in Germany, although it paid off when successfully catching the BVB players offside for two disallowed goals. However, now, following a run of 10 competitive games in 35 days, Flick’s side are beginning to show signs of fatigue and that could cause a dip in concentration at the back.
One thing’s for sure: the assistant referees keeping an eye on Inter’s forwards over the tie will be grateful for the semi-automated offside technology in use.
Inter’s Concerning Form
A 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich in the quarter-final second leg saw Inter progress past the Bundesliga giants and into the semis.
They were on top of the world, but their form has fallen off a cliff since then.
Following a 1-0 loss at Juventus in February, Inter went 13 games without defeat in all competitions (W9 D4). However, they then lost 1-0 at Bologna, before going down 3-0 in the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final against Milan. Then, to top things off, the Nerazzurri were beaten 1-0 by Roma at San Siro on Sunday, falling three points behind Napoli in the Serie A title race.
Inter have lost three consecutive games without scoring in all competitions for the first time since February 2012 (five in a row under Claudio Ranieri, coincidentally the man who masterminded Roma’s victory at the weekend).
Their two league defeats were not undeserved, either. Inter lost the xG battle in both games and largely struggled to test the opposition goalkeepers. Simone Inzaghi’s men had just one shot on target from eight attempts at Bologna, before only testing Mile Svilar twice from 17 efforts against Roma.
They did slightly edge the xG in their 3-0 defeat to Milan in the Coppa Italia but still only hit the target three times from 16 shots, with the Rossoneri far deadlier in front of goal.
Inter will have to be more clinical against Barcelona, but if they can perform at the levels they did in their 4-3 aggregate win over Bayern, they will likely give the Catalans a stern test.
No Lewandowski, But Will It Matter?
Barcelona’s main goal threat this season has been the veteran Robert Lewandowski.
With 40 goals in 48 games, the 36-year-old is the top scorer in all competitions among players from the top five European leagues. He’s also one of only three players to have reached the 100-goal mark in UEFA Champions League history.
The Pole will be missing for at least the first leg of this tie, however, having left the pitch with 12 minutes to play against Celta Vigo on 19 April with a hamstring injury.
It’s not like Barcelona have struggled without him this season, though. In the five games he’s played no part of, the La Liga leaders have won all five and scored 19 goals. Each match came against top-flight opposition, too, including the 3-2 extra-time Copa del Rey final win over Real Madrid in last weekend’s Clásico.
This isn’t a Barcelona side struggling to find goals elsewhere. Four other players have reached double figures for goals in all competitions this season, with Raphinha on 30, Ferran Torres on 18, Lamine Yamal on 14 and Dani Olmo on 10.
Torres is likely to take Lewandowski’s spot in the side as their centre-forward option, and across the five games Lewandowski’s missed this season, the former Man City attacker has scored six times. That includes an impressive Copa del Rey hat-trick inside the opening 30 minutes versus Valencia in February and the late equaliser to take the Saturday’s Clásico to extra-time.
Torres is less of a ‘box player’ than Lewandowski, so will likely try pulling Inter’s back three out of position to make space for teammates. While a smaller proportion of his touches have come inside the opposition’s box (15.2% compared to Lewandowski’s 18.7%) in all competitions this season, he’s averaged four more touches per 90 than the Pole and has been almost as active as him inside the box (5.4 touches in the opposition’s box per 90 compared to Lewandowski’s 5.8).
Surprisingly, Torres’ goals-per-90 average (factoring in all added time, too) is 0.86 and higher than Lewandowski’s 0.76 this season. But he also combines with his teammates more regularly, with a higher expected assists/90 average (0.10 vs 0.06) and open-play chances created/90 (1.2 vs 0.7).
Can Inter Exploit the Flanks?
Inzaghi plays three at the back, and so a lot of Inter’s attacking play comes down the wings.
With Federico Dimarco bombing down the left and either Denzel Dumfries or Matteo Darmian doing the same on the right, teams need to be able to defend their flanks to keep Inter out.
The sterling work of Dimarco should concern Barça in particular, though.
The Italy international is averaging 4.7 open-play crosses per 90 in all competitions this season, comfortably the most of any Inter player, and he’s tallied 2.2 chances created in open play per 90 in the Champions League, also more than any of his teammates. Only Nicolò Barella can match Dimarco’s eight assists (seven from open play) for Inter in all comps this season, at least three more than any other player.
